What is certain in science? Uncertainty!

of Perseid meteor shower, set to peak on August 11, provides an opportunity not only to show students the workings of the solar system and deep space, but how uncertainty is actually an essential certainty in science. After all, scientific work is less about finding absolute answers – and more about asking questions.

or big event like the meteor shower or April Fools’ Day solar eclipse can help students understand the role that uncertainty plays in science, but teachers can also use smaller, class-sized projects that illustrate this concept. Even a small exercise can help students see how scientists approach their work—and how observation and inquiry are central to all science.

This is why it is important to introduce these concepts to students and illustrate their importance.

Perseids and uncertainty ESSENTIAL

until scientists can predict fairly well what time of year the Perseids will arrive, others factor play a role in predicting how powerful the annual event will be – and how well it can be seen.

“We have a pretty good idea of ​​where it is, but what we don’t have is a good handle on how strong it’s going to be, because there’s a cloud of material left over from a comet, and there are different factors in how that cloud will to be dense every year,” said Shannon Schmoll, director of the Abrams Planetarium at Michigan State University. “There’s always a level of uncertainty.”

For Schmoll, astronomical events like the Perseids provide an entry point to a foundation of science: observation. Sending students outside to watch a meteor shower, for example, involves them in an essential aspect of scientific inquiry.

“Observation leads to questions, and questions can be introduced into any scientific setting,” Schmoll said.

Educators eager to incorporate the upcoming Perseids into lesson plans can ask students to observe the night sky and then count how many meteors they see during a given period of time.

The predicted rate for this year’s meteor shower event is 100 meteors per hour — in an ideal environment, Schmoll said. However, she cautioned that it is unlikely that anyone would see meteors at that rate, because that would require looking directly up at a dark, clear sky with no visible moon.

However, the difference in how people will see the meteor shower and where they will be, lends itself to the impact on observation and comparison. For example, is the moon visible? Is their view blocked by trees, or are they in an open area with a wider view of the sky?

“That can affect an idea of ​​what the number is telling you versus what you can observe, and the numbers we can predict versus what we can see,” Schmoll said.

Other ways to learn uncertainty

While the Perseid meteor shower typically occurs between mid-July and August—when most schools are on summer break—there are other opportunities to weave the concept of uncertainty into science lessons.

Activities that appear to have a correct answer can help students learn about the role that experimentation, data collection — and uncertainty — play in science, said Jonathan Osborne, professor emeritus at Stanford University’s School of Education. Some of these options can work at any grade level – even with very young students.

One exercise Osborne suggests is for the class to find out the boiling point of water by using a thermometer, a beaker of water and a Bunsen burner, and then measuring the temperature of the liquid after it reaches a steady boil. Not every student can get the 100º C reading that is seen as accurate. Why?

One student will probably have dirt in his beaker, while another will measure before the water is fully boiling, and another may have set the thermometer on steam.

Students need to learn that they are not poor scientists because of these differences, but that this is how scientific experimentation can work—even when conducted by trained scientists.

Why learn about uncertainty?

For Beth Covitt, teaching students about uncertainty is important because it is a critical part of any scientific inquiry, whether conducted in a classroom or a professional laboratory.

Covitt, who is head of science education research and evaluation and director of the hands-on science center spectrum at the University of Montana – Missoula, notes that scientific journals even require authors to write about limitations of their studies or areas of their research that would benefit from additional exploration.

“Sometimes, people think that the presence of uncertainty about a scientific question implies scientific failure, but uncertainty and failure are really quite distinct in science,” Covitt said. “Read any article published in a scientific journal and you will see a description of persistent uncertainties and unanswered questions that deserve further investigation.”

By bringing uncertainty into science classrooms, students learn more about the scientific process, Osborne added.

“Dealing with uncertainty is central to all of life,” Osborne said. “Events are inherently unpredictable, and knowing that’s a feature of all disciplines helps people be more comfortable with it and understand why sometimes decisions have to be made with limited evidence.”